2017 – Week 49

Happy saturday folks,

Hope you guys had a great week and enjoying the weekend. Time for weekly review as always.

Last week was quite busy with 10 trades, yet not the results I would have been “hoping” for (see last week’s review with what I’d need to end the year on a good note) and made a mistake on GBPJPY trade : placed order at completion on a bearish Cypher pattern and forgot to check the stop size which was above my max allowed size on advanced patterns (100 pips max stop size).

I noticed my mistake after I got filled the Cypher as I added up the trade in my trading journal (which is my routine : orders are placed on my trading platform but I write them down in my trading journal when I get filled not to have to sit during the weekend to go through all the trades I took and write them down; I do it continually as I get filled, targets/stops gets hit , …). As I was writing down the trade in my trading journal, that’s where I noticed the stop was too big causing me to get out the trade right away, and placeing a new order a bit higher. Turned out I got filled again and ended up being stopped out. But it’s all about getting the process right and following the rules !

I continue in the drawdown and made it all the way back down to where I started tracking equity curve. It could be frustrating and discouragin, however, that equity curve is only a part of my year because I had been testing a few other money management the first 6 months in 2017 and the equity curve only reflects the last 6 months.

During the holidays I’ll be reviewing the entire year, and applying my money management to all the other trades and recalculate my performance based on that. I’m expecting the curve and numbers to look better than they actually do : they’re not going to be great figures (I’m expecting a 1 digit % profit) but encouraging and motivating figures anyway, getting me fired up for 2018!

Well, not much more to say about this past week so I’ll let you guys enjoy the rest of the weekend!

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2017 – Week 48 & November

Good morning everyone.

Hope you guys enjoyed your weekend; enjoyed mine with a friend’s birthday party, continuing to work on the ice rink on our yard for the kids (that’s a fun learning experience and already tons of improvements planned for next year) and putting up our christmas decoration and christmas tree : the end of the year is right around the corner and very little time left to trade this year before 2017 will be history !

Week 48 results

Last week was tough : 2 winners out of 8 trades (and 1 BE) yet managed to limit the losses with total -42,8 pips for the week & -1,98% in terms of equity. The pips curve continues its sideways move while the equity curve continues its move down in my longest drawdown for the year, started 5 weeks ago when I reached the highest equity on the account so far. That would have been nice to end the year above the $10000 watermark on the account (started tracking equity when the account was around $9200); so it will take 2 incredible coming weeks to make it back up and out of the drawdown. Not impossible as you never know what the markets will give us, yet not probable as we’re approaching the end of the year and markets will be slowing down. Only thing I can do is wait and see while sticking to my trading plan!

Here are the stats for last week before jumping to November review

What about November ?

As for November it’s a negative month. After 7 positive months in a row it was only a matter of time until I’d hit the drawdown, and November was the drawdown month. Reviewing my trading, there isn’t much I could have done as no mistakes were done and the trade plan was properly followed. It’s about continuing to be consistent and trading myself out of the drawdown.

Inspite of the negative results, it’s a big step forward anyway, or I should say 2 steps forward. First step is that I have been working a bunch of hours to add a strategy to my arsenal. I wanted a strategy with more “predictable” results than the advanced patterns Iäm already trading : the tricky part with patterns is that, based on how I backtested them, targets are adjusted with price action, so it occurs, really often, than final targets are smaller than original one on pattern completion. So you never really know how much pips/money you’re gonna get (even if based on the backtesting results, you have an calculated an average expectancy).

So based on this 2 factors, I have backtested and added a double bottom/top strategy with specific rules that should add a bit more stability in terms of expectations and easier trade management (no need to adjuste target, I just need to set stop and target and let market do its thing). For all details on the strategy stats see last week’s review.

That new strategy already provided me 2 trades this past/current week : a losing one on GBPJPY (-47,3 pips) and a winning this morning after market opening on GBPUSD (+108,5 pips).

Second step forward is that I also put a bunch of hours programming an EA to manage for me my advanced patterns trading. After lots of testing and buggs discovered the hard way (the last 2 ones messed up 2 live trades), the EA is operational, working fine (even if will continue to improve it and add features one after the other), and will help me reverse my avg win/loss figures which wasn’t looking good so far this year (avg loss was much bigger than my avg win).

Well results of the hard work paid off directly and the figures reversed already for November:
2017-Nov-ResumeChart

Whatever steps are needed to improve your trading, you got to put the hard work into it, improving one area at a time. Just be aware it will be a never ending story as there will always be something that can be improved here and there.

So inspite of the drawdown and the negative month, I’m pretty happy and satisfied that hard work pays off. Sometimes right away, sometimes later on down the road, but it does pay off.

What’s next ?

Well, we’re now quickly approaching the end of the year so markets are gonna slow down. I will then be able to focus on some others things like adding features to my trade management EA, preparing the work for my yearly review, start setting some ground goals for next year, and doing some BACKTESTING ! I got an arm-long list of things I want to test but what’s been catching most of my attention this past weeks is a pattern I see happening often based on RSI divergence : price would make a higher high (or lower low), but RSI will go the other way. Likewise my double top/bottom strategy, I will be looking for this pattern to occur at specific levels and not just wherever. I have figured out the ground rules for that, now it’s about getting down to getting the backtesting done.

RSI-Divergence

Well, that’s it for today. Wish you guys a great week in the markets!

2017 – Week 47

Happy saturday folks!

Hope everyone is doing great. Publishing a quick review of the past trading week, as I do every week. It helps me keep myself accountable knowing my review has to be as honest as possible cause I put out for everyone to see.

This past week was a bit tough : taken 9 trades, lost 6 , won 3 and have 1 still running for target 2. Ending up the week with -5,9 pips, but down on equity -2,69% : my winners clearly did not make it for the losers, but it stays in the range of my regular win/loss in terms of equity on weekly basis so not worried at all.

This week I finished the backtesting of my DT/DB strategy on all of my 6 pairs :

  • +25679 pips
  • 281 trades
  • average win rate 61%
  • average loss -92 pips
  • average stop size 57 pips
  • average win 208 pips

2017-11-25 17_40_10-SPREADSHEET-BackTesting-TCT DTDB-2618.xlsx - Excel

GBPNZD & GBPJPY are great winners on that strategy, but at the cost of higher risk with about 10% of tested trades with a stop size bigger than 100 pips (biggest one was 283 pips which ended up being a winners +622 pips). After crunching numbers and tweaking the strategy, it shows a decreased performance by -20% (in total numbers of pips made and Equity curve) not taking those higher risk trade or taking a much more conservative money management approach on those bigger stop trades (half the regular position size for example). So I decided not to skip the bigger risk trades and stick to my money management : the strategy does not provide a trade that often, and only the high probabilities one, so the challenge will be on the mind and psychologicaly level, pushing myself outside the comfort zone.

Also took some other steps to push myself outside my comfort zone, will share more on that in the coming weeks when everything is finalized and rolling. But though It’s gonna be challenging, it’s gonna be fun and the next step towards my “Big picture” trading goals.

Regarding phase 1 of my Trade Management EA, it’s getting finalized. Tweaked the last few details this week so it looks like I can rely on it now. This will be a great tool helping me in my trading.

Only a few days left in November. Looks like I’ll be closing a losing one after 7 consecutive ones in the positive. Let’s see what we get offered by the markets next week.

 

Well, that’s it for today. I’ll leave you guys with the usual stats. Have a great sunday and a great week next week !

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2017 – Week 46

Happy saturday everyone!

Hope you guys are enjoying your weekend. Personally had a nice time today with old friends we had not seen in 15 years. We sure had fun and enjoyed good food!

This past week went slow-fast as I got pretty busy with a bunch of stuff at work & at home, yet “only” took 5 trades this week (3 winners – 1 loser – 1 still active) and banking a nice +251,5 pips. It actually should have a bit more but had a bug on the EA that manages my pattern trading.

The first phase of the EA had been programmed and tested (but found out this week not 100%) and I started to use it this week on my real-time trading. But “it failed me” on GBPJPY Cypher : I got filled the cypher while still at work and price kept pushing a bit lower. Went back home, turned on my PC again, and the EA had a bug in the initialisation process which caused it to think that the trade had hit T1 thus directly closing half of the position at market (which was 10 pips too early on that trade), and moving stop to BE. Bug was identified and fixed but made me miss 10 pips (hey after all it’s all my fault, I was the one programming that EA! ). So that was the (re)learned lesson this week : testing is extremely important !

I also “alsmot” made a mistake on GBPJPY on friday : I got filled and stopped out a bullish Gartley, then directly filled a bullish Cypher (T1 “-10 pips too early” winner explained above). And that’s where I realized that there was also a bullish BAT on that pattern, with the same X then the Cypher. My trading plan says that if multiple patterns occur with the same X leg I have to take the one with the best risk to reward ratio, so it should have been the BAT and not the Cypher. But since I did not spot the BAT until after I got stopped out at BE on the Cypher, it’s technically not a mistake.

I’m still long that BAT : will have to be behind my charts on sunday when markets will re-opened (gonna need some good coffee to keep me awake cause it’s 11pm in my time-zone when markets open). Will have a short night on sunday because of that (I get up at 4:30am every weekday), but got to do what I got to do!

A quick word regarding backtesting : I’m almost done with my Double Top/Bottom strategy testing (only have 4 years of data left to test on GBPNZD and I’m all done) so I will be able to do some numbers crunching on the strategy soon, tweak rules if necessary and fully incorporate it in my real-time trading. But so far on 5 pairs the results are really good :

  • Win rate : 61%
  • Avg stop size : 50 pips
  • Avg loss : -47 pips
  • Avg Win : 107 pips
  • Total trades tested : 246
  • Total pips won : +11604

2017-11-18 20_53_32-SPREADSHEET-BackTesting-TCT DTDB-2618.xlsx - Excel.png

I like how the curve shows few sharp variation and is quite smooth which will be a great add-on to my toolbox.

I’m also working on a “London Session Open” strategy but this one will be fully automated. I have written the EA that has been running for a few weeks now (still need some small tweaks), and I will let it run for another 2-3 months before doing a review on it. The EA takes 1 trade per pair each day, so I will have a sample of a bit above 100 trades per pair which is enough to review it, pick the most profitable pairs and then add the strategy to my real-time trading. More details on that one when it will go “live”!

Well, that’s it for today. I’ll leave you guys with the usual stats. Have a great sunday and a great week next week !

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2017 – Week 45

Happy sunday folks !

Hope you had a great weekend. I enjoyed mine spending time with friend and family and enjoying the first snow of the season : winter is now installed !

Trading wise, I been doing a lot of work reviewing trades, strategies and pairs to find ways to reverse my “avg win/avg loss” ratios (see last week’s video). First action was to remove for now USDCAD from my portfolio : even if that pair brought me a 800+ trade earlier this year, it’s also significant part of the losses. It will make it back in my portfolio when I’ll have had time to review the strategy, redo som backtesting to improve rules and optimize results.

Second action was to start programming an EA on MT4 that will assist me in managing my trades so I will not have to take 2 positions on each trade. Advantage of MT4/5 is that you can place your orders pretty early before a pattern completes, and have stop & profit orders already defined and in place. Downside is that you need to take one position for each target; since I take 2 targets on all advanced patterns, always been having 2 positions. So when a trade is a loser, you’ll lose 2* the stop size (money wise it makes no difference as I calculate the size of each position based on my money/risk management rules). Having the EA assisting me, I’ll only need to take 1 position instead of 2 which will greatly improve the pips results and stats.

I have a first version of the EA under testing now, and got a bunch of ideas to improve it and add features in the future (being an IT guy and programmer in 10+ years, I don’t understand why I did not come to that MUCH earlier !!! 0_o).

Stats wise, I’ve had my third losing week in a row, so still in the drawdown (which is the longest and biggest so far this year) but will do exactly what I’ve been doing through the previous ones : strictly stick to my trading plan and keep trading according to my trading rules. It got me out the previous ones and will get me of this one as well!

Leaving you guys with some detailed charts. Have a great week in the markets next week!

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2017 – Week 42

Good evening!

 

Hope you guys had a great saturday; mine was busy getting our boat on dry land for the winter (we were only 4 weeks later than planned 0_o ), and getting a bunch of paper works done for a charity my wife and I are helping.

After a long, hard and busy day, it’s time for some trading review (since I’ll be gone all day again tomorrow, right now is the right time to get it done and out of the way to enjoy the rest of the weekend).

This week as a rough one : 9 trades taken, 3 winners & 6 losers, ending the week at -231 pips & -1,89% equity. I’m still positive for the month of October with 2 trading days left in the month (let’s see next week how the market will treat us). GBPUSD has been the pair allowing me to limit the drawdown with 2 winners (+259 pips ) out of 3 trades, and my best performing pair this month so far (with +341 pips for the month).

As I posted on twitter earlier this week, in the rough time, you got to stick to the backtested plan, and “embrace the losers” the same way you celebrate the winners (hey I haven’t put those 500+ hours of backtesting to throw it all out the window when it’s rocking a bit!!!).

2017-10-28 21_56_41-Akil Stokes sur Twitter _ _@journeyrookie Love it. _Embrace the losses_ Each los.png

As long as rules are followed, each good trade needs to be embraced and celebrated, regardless of the outcome. It’s not about making or losing money, it’s about mastering and sticking to the process and applying your edge in the market, again and again!

I’m was flat on friday evening but have orders placed on GBPJPY for a buying opportunity, and will be looking to buy EURUSD when market opens tomorrow, IF my rules get met. Until then, leaving you guys with the detailed stats for this week.

Enjoy your sunday, do something fun and talk to you guys next week!

Closed Trades

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